Report - The coveted prize and the Brendan Rodgers footballing philosophy

Posted by jamieredders on August 17, 2012, 11:25:35 pm

Really excited about this season.  A new man at the helm with a new style.

Here we are on the eve of the season and I thought it would be of interest to list what Swansea City achieved under Brendan Rodgers last season and what we have to do better than Swansea did to achieve the coveted prize.

Swansea's record was as follows:

Overall

P38 W12 D11 L15 PTS47
 
Home

W8 D7 L4
 
Away

W4 D4 L11

His team at Swansea was in the main (PL starts in brackets):

GK  Vorm (36)
RB Rangel (32)
LB Taylor (35)
CB Williams (36)
CB Caulker (25)
MC Britton (34)
MC Allen (18)
MC  Siggurdson (16)
RW Dyer (28)
LW Sinclair (34)
ST Graham (31)

As I write, Liverpool's expected First 11 is this:

GK  Reina
RB  Johnson
LB  Enrique
CB  Skrtel
CB  Agger
MC  Lucas
MC  Allen
MC  Gerrard
RW  Downing
LW  Borini
ST  Suarez

On paper, a massive difference in class to those starting 11's.

To win the league last season, took 89 points.  A massive 42 points difference from what Swansea achieved.
To finish 4th last season and potentially qualify for the megabucks in Europe required 69 points. A 22 point differential.

Can Liverpool's far more classy squad acquire those extra 22 points and finish Top 4?

Swansea were earning roughly 1.24 points per game to finish 11th and five points behind Liverpool in 8th.  Man City were earning 2.34 points per game to win the title.  Spurs were earning 1.82 points per game to finish 4th and then gazumped for a Champions League place.

Therefore to speculatively finish in the top 4,  Liverpool must earn approximately 0.6 pts per game better than Swansea did last season.

Swansea's record ............Home result first, away result second

Man City   WL
Man Utd   LL
Arsenal       WL
Tottenham   XL
Newcastle   LX
Chelsea   XL
Everton   LL
Liverpool   WX
Fulham   WW
WBA    WW
Norwich   LL
Sunderland   XL
Stoke   WL
Wigan    XW
A Villa    XW
QPR   XL
Bolton    WX
Blackburn WL
Wolves   XX


V Top 6 teams =  W2 X3 L7 (9 pts from 12 games) (0.75 pts per game)

V Middle 8 teams  W6 X2 L6 (20 points from 14 games)  (1.43 pts per game)

V Bottom 6 Teams = W4 X6 L2  (18 points from 12 games)  (1.5 pts per game)

Conclusion

Assuming that the table this year will be much the same as last year.
Assuming that BR's style of football for Swansea will continue at Liverpool.
Assuming that Liverpool have a much higher quality of player than Swansea had last year.
For a Top 4 place and an improvement of 0.6 pts per game, Liverpool must look to achieve these results:

V Top 6 -  W4 X4 L4 - 16 pts  (12 games = 1.33 pts per game)

Man City  H-X A-X
Man Utd  H-L A-L
Arsenal  H-L  A-X      
Tottenham  H-W  A-L
Newcastle  H-X A-W
Chelsea  H -X A-X

V Middle 8 - W8 X4 L2 - 28 pts (14 games = 2 pts per game)

Everton     H-X  A-X
Fulham  H-W A-W
WBA    H-L A-L
Swansea H-W A-X
Norwich H-W A-W 
Sunderland  H-W A-X 
Stoke    H-X A-L

V Bottom 6 - W8 X4 L0 - 28 pts (12 games = 2.33 pts per game)

Wigan  H-W  A-W
A Villa H-L  A-W
QPR    H-W  A-W
Reading H-W  A-X
Southampton  H-W  A-L
West Ham H- X  A-W


This would give Liverpool 72 points and an expected 3rd or 4th place in the premiership and the coveted cash prize.

Possible?

With a determination within the side and a little luck along the way - definitely!

 


PS

72 points is not necessarily the target.  See below

4th position pts required in 20 team premierships


2013 73 pts  21 wins
2012 69 pts  20 wins
2011 68 pts  19 wins
2010 70 pts  21 wins
2009 72 pts  20 wins
2008 76 pts  21 wins
2007 68 pts  19 wins
2006 67 pts  20 wins
2005 61 pts  18 wins
2004 60 pts  16 wins
2003 67 pts  19 wins
2002 71 pts  21 wins
2001 68 pts  20 wins
2000 67 pts  19 wins
1999 67 pts  18 wins
1998 63 pts  20 wins
1997 68 pts  19 wins
1996 63 pts  18 wins

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