Author Topic: UK General Election  (Read 143303 times)

Offline TSC

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6360 on: June 15, 2024, 06:49:29 pm »
Savanta poll has the lead growing.

🌹Lab 46 (+2)
🌳Con 21 (-4)
➡️Reform 13 (+3)
🔶LD 11 (+2)
🌍Green 5 (+1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 3 (-1)

2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June


Tories won’t even qualify for Europe at this rate 😁

Offline Red-Soldier

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6361 on: June 15, 2024, 06:51:27 pm »


I disagree with your overall point.  As has been stated previously, there will always be fanatics and people that lean towards the far-right, and the grifters/idealogues, to lead them. However, they are a small demographic.

If the masses are happy and content, they, generally, will not be susceptible to the populist agenda.  Simple answers to complex questions.

Look at post WW1 Germany.  The Nazis didn't rise to power, in a content and stable country. Of course, once it pasts a certain stage, it may become fashionable/trendy, to follow them, too.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2024, 06:54:59 pm by Red-Soldier »

Offline TSC

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6362 on: June 15, 2024, 07:01:34 pm »
I disagree with your overall point.  As has been stated previously, there will always be fanatics and people that lean towards the far-right, and the grifters/idealogues, to lead them. However, they are a small demographic.

If the masses are happy and content, they, generally, will not be susceptible to the populist agenda.  Simple answers to complex questions.

Look at post WW1 Germany.  The Nazis didn't rise to power, in a content and stable country. 

Used to think the poor German economy then was because of ww1 reparations, then watched a very good and current series on Netflix about the Nazis rise and fall.  Economy had recovered post ww1 and was pretty strong, but then collapsed again because of the global impacts of the wall street crash in 1929

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6363 on: June 15, 2024, 07:03:08 pm »
Nice to see that Savanta poll after a few showing a little slippage recently.

Postal votes are out now in some areas so the election proper has started

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6364 on: June 15, 2024, 07:10:09 pm »
Tories won’t even qualify for Europe at this rate 😁

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6365 on: June 15, 2024, 07:12:17 pm »

New Survation MRP too. Don’t think Reform win 7 to be honest.


New MRP polling by Survation for Best for Britain predicts the Conservatives could win just 72 seats. Labour is projected to win a landslide of 456 seats, with a majority of 262. The Liberal Democrats are set for 56 seats, Reform UK 7 and Greens 1. Conservatives are set to lose seats in every region while Labour gains everywhere. All seven of Reform UK's gains were won by the Tories in 2019. Conservatives have no "safe" seats, with majorities of less than 2 per cent in 19 of 72 constituencies. Cabinet ministers Jeremy C*nt and Penny Mordaunt would lose seats. Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Dame Priti Patel would keen theirs

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6366 on: June 15, 2024, 07:12:53 pm »
I disagree with your overall point.  As has been stated previously, there will always be fanatics and people that lean towards the far-right, and the grifters/idealogues, to lead them. However, they are a small demographic.

If the masses are happy and content, they, generally, will not be susceptible to the populist agenda.  Simple answers to complex questions.

Look at post WW1 Germany.  The Nazis didn't rise to power, in a content and stable country. Of course, once it pasts a certain stage, it may become fashionable/trendy, to follow them, too.

Almost as if Frottage knew Brexit would make the country a hotbed of discontent that he and his sponsors could then exploit with a populist agenda...

As horrible as 2019 was, it was probably a blessing in disguise for Labour. Deform could have already destroyed the Tories and would already be eating into what support the Labour government had left.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6367 on: June 15, 2024, 07:24:15 pm »
Used to think the poor German economy then was because of ww1 reparations, then watched a very good and current series on Netflix about the Nazis rise and fall.  Economy had recovered post ww1 and was pretty strong, but then collapsed again because of the global impacts of the wall street crash in 1929

A pre-Nazi German government had also been elected on the promise of doing whatever was possible to render the Versailles treaty moot, including breaking the economy so reparations were not feasible. Now that might not be why the economy was broken in the event, but it shows how far they were willing to go to rebel against a treaty which they regarded as unfair. One clause of which they disliked above all others: the insistence that Germany lost WWI. The Allies did it right the second time round, occupying the country and making it utterly inarguable that Germany lost. No stabs in the back when the enemy are sitting on top of you regularly punching you in the face.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6368 on: June 15, 2024, 07:48:24 pm »
And another

📊 Labour lead at 24pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 19% (-1)
REF: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)

via
@techneUK
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6369 on: June 15, 2024, 07:51:37 pm »
@survation
NEW: First MRP Since Farage’s return.

Labour on course for 262 seat majority.

LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6370 on: June 15, 2024, 07:55:11 pm »
@survation
NEW: First MRP Since Farage’s return.

Labour on course for 262 seat majority.

LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

42,269 interviews conducted online and on the phone
Fwk 31 May - 13 June
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Offline TSC

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6371 on: June 15, 2024, 09:49:11 pm »
A pre-Nazi German government had also been elected on the promise of doing whatever was possible to render the Versailles treaty moot, including breaking the economy so reparations were not feasible. Now that might not be why the economy was broken in the event, but it shows how far they were willing to go to rebel against a treaty which they regarded as unfair. One clause of which they disliked above all others: the insistence that Germany lost WWI. The Allies did it right the second time round, occupying the country and making it utterly inarguable that Germany lost. No stabs in the back when the enemy are sitting on top of you regularly punching you in the face.

And Von Papen and Hildenburg effectively handed power to Hitler.  Not to take the thread off topic, but just speaks to the fact that extremists/populists can exploit situations and a political vacuum to grab power.  The like of Frottage is never gonna be elected PM as Reform leader, but more likely (arguably) to do so via the Tory party.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6372 on: June 15, 2024, 10:16:36 pm »
Interesting that the latest Electoral Calculus poll shows the Tories "best case" winning 80 seats. That's slightly up on the 75 seats from their previous poll. Not that either result would be great for the Tories of course.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
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Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6373 on: June 15, 2024, 10:43:08 pm »

Opinium for the Observer. Tories going nowhere. The underlying figure was 44-21 before they adjusted for don’t knows.

- Labour 40% (-2)
· Conservatives 23% (-1)
· Lib Dems 12% (+2)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 14% (+2)

Fieldwork: 12 - 14 June.

Tory rags barely covering the race anymore.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6374 on: June 15, 2024, 11:20:30 pm »
Sorry if this is a stupid question but if the above were to happen, who would be in opposition?

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6375 on: June 15, 2024, 11:28:22 pm »
Sorry if this is a stupid question but if the above were to happen, who would be in opposition?

On the Electoral Calculus figures above it would still be the Tories on 80 seats compared with the Lib Dems on 63 - it wouldn't take much for that to switch, though...

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6376 on: June 16, 2024, 07:18:42 am »
Its amazing how disproportionate the reporting is around private schools considering the amount of people that will negatively be hit by Labour’s proposals, to the extent where schools will close and people wont be able to afford it.

As was said by one of the Mirror editors, the press and media consists of tonnes of people who send their kids to private school and thats why there seems to be non-stop reporting over this. Its a classic example of vested interests.

Even in todays Times they have a London school which they have specifically chosen simply because it has kids from a diverse background, so they can push the sympathy card under the heading they are not Eton. Of course this non-Eton charity case offers after school lessons in stockbroking.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6377 on: June 16, 2024, 07:30:25 am »
Mark Harper doing the media round again. Its funny to see how few Tory MP’s Sunak has to call on and are willing to come forward. Some are doing the odd interview here and there for him but he only has a few that do the whole shift.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6378 on: June 16, 2024, 08:13:08 am »
Mel Stride must have been having a rest
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Offline cornishscouser92

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6379 on: June 16, 2024, 08:13:42 am »
Sorry if this is a stupid question but if the above were to happen, who would be in opposition?

The conservatives will probably be the main opposition, but under 100 seats.
Liberal Democrats will probably be anywhere from 30-80 seats.
SNP 15-35 seats.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6380 on: June 16, 2024, 08:46:43 am »
Its amazing how disproportionate the reporting is around private schools considering the amount of people that will negatively be hit by Labour’s proposals, to the extent where schools will close and people wont be able to afford it.

Good point. Google tells me 6% of UK children attend private school. Which is probably twice what I'd have guessed.
Some of those schools are probably geared toward SEN, and maybe they should be singled out for special treatment (or the public sector have much better provision).
I'd guess (see above for how inaccurate my guesses are) that half of those 6% have parents for whom the VAT change will just mean a few less Fortnum and Masons hampers to give out.
I'd be suprised if the total number of children that have to leave private schools because of this adds up to more than one child added to each state school.
Of more importance is the number of children that are failing badly because their parents are choosing between heating and eating.

I'm not convinced it's in the media spotlight because of vested interest, more that it's just on their radar . I know it's a thin line between the two things, but I'm taking 'vested interest' to mean they are reporting it because they think the articles might sway things to help them.  Maybe 'vested self interest' ?    Thinking through, given that it's a near certainty that labour win, it's not even that.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6381 on: June 16, 2024, 08:49:35 am »
Private schools should make cuts - just like state schools have had to do for years.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6382 on: June 16, 2024, 09:01:44 am »


As a parent who does send their kids private at secondary level, I know many such parents that acknowledge that removing the VAT exemption is fair. Yes, the schools will likely pass on some of the increase but they’ve massively increased fees in the last 5 years without VAT even being an issue so they’re sat on a pile of cash as it is. You’d have to be mad to be scraping every penny together to send your kids private because fees are climbing exponentially anyway.

The private schools that may fail are ones that are already struggling because they don’t have enough students. That’s the free market at work which Tories used to worship. For every sob story on this issue there are the 93% of parents for whom private education is not an option. How about improving the standard of state education so people don’t feel they need to pay a fortune to escape it?

I look at this issue in reverse. If VAT already applied to private school fees, would it be acceptable to remove VAT by taking £1.5bn out of state school funding? Of course not and despite all the sound and fury I would bet good money that the Tories won’t reverse the change.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6383 on: June 16, 2024, 09:09:12 am »
Private schools should make cuts - just like state schools have had to do for years.
Fees have gone up 50% above inflation since 2010. They have massive room to do this.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6384 on: June 16, 2024, 09:13:47 am »
Straw poll, who, if they had a lottery win that was just enough to cover school 'fees' at their nearest private school for the rest of their school life would send their children.
I know I would.

By fees I mean fees, school uniform, lacrosse stick, trips. All the costs.
Actually I can see what will happen, vat will be added, school fees will come down but other things they can charge you for that don't have vat will suddenly rocket.

--edit--on a technical note. Is the proposal to add vat to school fees, or simply for the schools not to be able to claim vat back on costs.  I'm sure theres a huge difference.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2024, 09:15:27 am by PaulF »
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Offline west_london_red

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6385 on: June 16, 2024, 09:27:05 am »
Straw poll, who, if they had a lottery win that was just enough to cover school 'fees' at their nearest private school for the rest of their school life would send their children.
I know I would.

By fees I mean fees, school uniform, lacrosse stick, trips. All the costs.
Actually I can see what will happen, vat will be added, school fees will come down but other things they can charge you for that don't have vat will suddenly rocket.

--edit--on a technical note. Is the proposal to add vat to school fees, or simply for the schools not to be able to claim vat back on costs.  I'm sure theres a huge difference.

I think I would have to seriously think about it, as i have said on here previously my kids primary school is absolutely fine but when it comes to secondary schools, the good ones in my area are all faith based and the state comps are basically all shit.

Alternately, I’d use the money to rent a house in an area with better schools but I’d be loathed to move, we have a nice house for our needs, it’s an average area but very good interns of for my mum, wife’s work, brother is only 10 mins away, inlaws only 15 mins away, it’s very convenient.

Neither choice is particularly morally appealing to be honest, but 14 years of Tory government in a strong Tory area with a Tory local council doesn’t give you any easy options unfortunately.
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Offline TSC

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6386 on: June 16, 2024, 09:33:46 am »
Mark Harper doing the media round again. Its funny to see how few Tory MP’s Sunak has to call on and are willing to come forward. Some are doing the odd interview here and there for him but he only has a few that do the whole shift.

Only switched Kuennsberg on, but she’s being relatively robust and tough in her interview with Harper, whereby she usually appears to go easy on the Tories.  Maybe a change in her approach

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6387 on: June 16, 2024, 09:34:57 am »
Funny how those on the right complain about VAT exemption on private schools, but the Tories tried to justify the pasty tax.

Is there a student loans system for private schools, like with university? Government should look into it if not - they'd make a killing.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6388 on: June 16, 2024, 09:43:26 am »
Opinium for the Observer. Tories going nowhere. The underlying figure was 44-21 before they adjusted for don’t knows.

- Labour 40% (-2)
· Conservatives 23% (-1)
· Lib Dems 12% (+2)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 14% (+2)

Fieldwork: 12 - 14 June.

Tory rags barely covering the race anymore.

Caught between a rock and a hard place. This isn't 1997 where a load of Tory rags switched sides and backed Labour to win. They've spent the past three or four years painting Labour as a socialist bogeyman and Starmer as Corbyn's acolyte - but they're going to win and win big.

They can't back the Tories because there's nothing to back them over, and they won't endorse Labour, even though they're going to win. So they're just avoiding the whole messy issue. Just the occasional scaremongering over a Labour "supermajority" to try and get people to stick with the Tories.

They helped create this mess by bigging up Frottage, a man who will happily turn the country into police state if he ever wins power. They don't seem to know which way to turn.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6389 on: June 16, 2024, 09:50:05 am »
Funny how those on the right complain about VAT exemption on private schools, but the Tories tried to justify the pasty tax.

Is there a student loans system for private schools, like with university? Government should look into it if not - they'd make a killing.

They would, but the last thing this country needs is more private schools.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6390 on: June 16, 2024, 09:57:38 am »
Straw poll, who, if they had a lottery win that was just enough to cover school 'fees' at their nearest private school for the rest of their school life would send their children.
I know I would.

By fees I mean fees, school uniform, lacrosse stick, trips. All the costs.
Actually I can see what will happen, vat will be added, school fees will come down but other things they can charge you for that don't have vat will suddenly rocket.

--edit--on a technical note. Is the proposal to add vat to school fees, or simply for the schools not to be able to claim vat back on costs.  I'm sure theres a huge difference.

Never in a million years. My children might get a better education academically by going to private school, but I'd much rather they experienced real life and increased their chances of becoming all-round decent people.

Now I might have a false impression of what private school is like and what it creates, but I will never not find it incredibly wrong that people can pay for a better education and give their kids a perceived head start in life just because they can afford to.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6391 on: June 16, 2024, 10:01:55 am »
Funny how those on the right complain about VAT exemption on private schools, but the Tories tried to justify the pasty tax.

Is there a student loans system for private schools, like with university? Government should look into it if not - they'd make a killing.

Are you really advocating even more debt for students?

The UK private schooling system is obscenely expensive. I sent my son to a really good fee paying school in the Greater Dublin area for one quarter of what I was quoted in a number of schools in Cambridge.
I took the choice to home school and was able to provide excellent tutors for a fraction of the cost.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6392 on: June 16, 2024, 10:09:41 am »
Caught between a rock and a hard place. This isn't 1997 where a load of Tory rags switched sides and backed Labour to win. They've spent the past three or four years painting Labour as a socialist bogeyman and Starmer as Corbyn's acolyte - but they're going to win and win big.

They can't back the Tories because there's nothing to back them over, and they won't endorse Labour, even though they're going to win. So they're just avoiding the whole messy issue. Just the occasional scaremongering over a Labour "supermajority" to try and get people to stick with the Tories.

They helped create this mess by bigging up Frottage, a man who will happily turn the country into police state if he ever wins power. They don't seem to know which way to turn.
Unfortunately for the rags there is actually money in Labour winning the election as negativity sells more than trying to prop up this deeply unpopular Tory government.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6393 on: June 16, 2024, 10:44:08 am »

Now I might have a false impression of what private school is like and what it creates, but I will never not find it incredibly wrong that people can pay for a better education and give their kids a perceived head start in life just because they can afford to.

I think we're agreed, that academic achievement is highly likely to be better.  And in that I include artistic and sporting pursuits.
I guess they are handicapped in terms of mixing with 'normal' people, but advanced in mixing with stockbrokers, CEOs , politicians. 
If your children want to be doctors for example though , while a state school isn't stopping them, their chances of 'success' are higher in a private school.

--edit-- I'm not saying this is right, in fact it's obviously wrong.  But I'm teasing out what you mean by perceived advantage.
--edit edit-- I guess the less savoury elements of public schools, are primed to be in positions of power and influence , so we see them more (yes Boris, I'm looking at you) and form more negative views of them.
(come to think of it, the doctors we (as in my family ) see frequently , certainly sound privately educated, but throughly decent people)

"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6394 on: June 16, 2024, 10:45:17 am »
Are you really advocating even more debt for students?

The UK private schooling system is obscenely expensive. I sent my son to a really good fee paying school in the Greater Dublin area for one quarter of what I was quoted in a number of schools in Cambridge.
I took the choice to home school and was able to provide excellent tutors for a fraction of the cost.

Students don't pay for private schools, parents do?

I was being somewhat tongue in cheek, but no, I'm not advocating replacing the current system with loans. I'm saying that if removing the VAT exemption for private schools makes things difficult for parents then some kind of optional bridging loan scheme might be a solution.

As was pointed out, fees have increased 50% since 2010. It is likely many parents are already in a difficult situation. But maybe there's already a support system like this in place?

I admit, I don't know how it works. But if the alternative is private schools making cuts, or parents being priced out altogether  then options to bridge the gap should be explored?
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6395 on: June 16, 2024, 10:50:49 am »
Straw poll, who, if they had a lottery win that was just enough to cover school 'fees' at their nearest private school for the rest of their school life would send their children.
I know I would.

By fees I mean fees, school uniform, lacrosse stick, trips. All the costs.
Actually I can see what will happen, vat will be added, school fees will come down but other things they can charge you for that don't have vat will suddenly rocket.

--edit--on a technical note. Is the proposal to add vat to school fees, or simply for the schools not to be able to claim vat back on costs.  I'm sure theres a huge difference.
For me definitely not. My dad was always working when I was a kid, missed out many moments. I'd use such winnings for me and the mother to work less and be there more for the kids and not so stressed when we are there. More comfort for the family and more opportunities to have great memories in the most precious part of life. Personally I don't understand the people that work themselves crazy to put their kids through private school and put that above everything.

 I can't say I wouldn't do if if I was truly wealthy but for me being there for your kids more important. I look at all the private school educated Tory kids and wonder if they were missing out on that and it's partly to blame why they lack such empathy for other people. I understand everyone has their own ideas on life though, just my opinion. Tories and other rich people don't do a very good job of selling the whole private school route, seems like it often breeds a money above all mentality. I'd much prefer my children to end up as good people than anything else, with good family orientated memories of their childhood. If you can do that and private school as well then great. But just don't agree with the folk that are so busy working thinking that putting their kids to private school is the best thing they can do, and miss out on actually being there for them.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6396 on: June 16, 2024, 11:04:47 am »
For me definitely not. My dad was always working when I was a kid, missed out many moments. I'd use such winnings for me and the mother to work less and be there more for the kids and not so stressed when we are there. More comfort for the family and more opportunities to have great memories in the most precious part of life. Personally I don't understand the people that work themselves crazy to put their kids through private school and put that above everything.

 I can't say I wouldn't do if if I was truly wealthy but for me being there for your kids more important. I look at all the private school educated Tory kids and wonder if they were missing out on that and it's partly to blame why they lack such empathy for other people. I understand everyone has their own ideas on life though, just my opinion. Tories and other rich people don't do a very good job of selling the whole private school route, seems like it often breeds a money above all mentality. I'd much prefer my children to end up as good people than anything else, with good family orientated memories of their childhood. If you can do that and private school as well then great. But just don't agree with the folk that are so busy working thinking that putting their kids to private school is the best thing they can do, and miss out on actually being there for them.

I tihnk I'm with you on this.  Makes a huge amount of sense.  If you could chop a day a week (say) from your working schedule, to swot up on the stuff they need help with academically too , you can probably achieve the best of both worlds.  I'm slowly beginning to realise, we perhaps need to understand what we truly value in life, and not just chase the shiny baubles dangled in front of us all the time.
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6397 on: June 16, 2024, 11:05:25 am »
Guardian reporting that Labour and the Tories are likely going to get the lowest share of the vote for the two main parties since 1945. The electorate is really fragmented.
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6398 on: June 16, 2024, 11:09:12 am »
Guardian reporting that Labour and the Tories are likely going to get the lowest share of the vote for the two main parties since 1945. The electorate is really fragmented.
The Tories are ones doing the heavy lifting here, not labour
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Re: UK General Election - CLACTON
« Reply #6399 on: June 16, 2024, 11:13:11 am »
Guardian reporting that Labour and the Tories are likely going to get the lowest share of the vote for the two main parties since 1945. The electorate is really fragmented.

It's interesting, because the Guardian's Today in Focus podcast did an epsode last week where they talked about how the spending cap for campaiging has basically doubled, and now Labour the Tories are absolutely dwarfing the other parties in ad spending, far far more than they did previously. And yet they have much lower combined support than usual.