Author Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON  (Read 344357 times)

Offline Millie

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7880 on: June 26, 2024, 05:48:01 pm »
Fair to say there's good news and bad news in this GB News poll

🗳️ GB Poll: Electoral Calculus/GB News
(MRP seat projection based on demographic extrapolation)

🌹 Labour 450 (+248)
🔸 Lib Dems 71 (+60)
🌳 Conservatives 60 (-305)
🎗️ SNP 24 (-24)
🌻 Plaid Cymru 4 (0)
🌍 Green 4 (+3)
➡️ Reform UK 18 (+18)
👤 Speaker 1

GB News - hmmm
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Offline smicer07

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7881 on: June 26, 2024, 05:50:45 pm »
GB News - hmmm

Yeah surely take this one with a pinch of salt?

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7882 on: June 26, 2024, 05:52:56 pm »
GB News - hmmm

The poll may have been commissioned by GB News but it was carried out/modelled by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus so there's no reason to doubt its integrity.

That said, the models are showing a huge amount of variance at the moment - I think the fact that such big swings are anticipated in comparison to previous elections since such models became commonplace is making it very difficult to get an accurate picture. It will certainly be a feather in the cap for which ever company gets closest to the final result!
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7883 on: June 26, 2024, 06:07:12 pm »
It might make some difference if it removes a hoop or two they no longer have to go through.

There's also a third reason why young people (or anyone) might not vote - pure apathy or any sense of civic duty at all.
  Where does the apathy come from? the biggest influence is family and friends. as you say it's not just young people who are apathetic and if they hear people close to them telling them they are all the same so no point voting then I can understand why they believe this. it's actually the older people who hold these views for life that are doing the damage. I don't mind voters being put off from voting Tory it's being put off from voting Labour believing they will do nothing for them which is wrong, don't get me wrong, young people have been let down for years and we know the reasons why governments have done this, they know young people won't turn out in force to punish them, it's a self fulfilling -prophecy.

One of the most stupid damaging statements Corbyn made as leader was to make a video 6 months before the last election saying all governments in the past 30yrs or so have ignored you, meaning the last Labour government ignored you.
It's as if he didn't even consider his job is to convince people to vote Labour and here he is saying the Labour party ignores you. Momentum went around the council estates asking young people to vote, walked up to a crowd of young people standing around and asked them if they would vote Labour, nahh we won't bother voting, no point, they won't do anything for us. that's what never seems to register, spending years attacking Labours image while fighting to take over Labour, they finally take over the party and do a complete u-turn and now it's please vote Labour, why the surprise when people say nahh you all ignore us so what's the point.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7884 on: June 26, 2024, 06:07:46 pm »
The poll may have been commissioned by GB News but it was carried out/modelled by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus so there's no reason to doubt its integrity.


Exactly, a polling company isn’t going to ruin its reputation by skewing the results to fit the agenda of the people who have commissioned the poll.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7885 on: June 26, 2024, 06:08:34 pm »
Same reaction by the right, in every country, funny that eh.

I’m sure that just one massive coincidence ;)
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Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7886 on: June 26, 2024, 06:09:40 pm »
No way are Reform getting 18 seats. I’d like to see the vote shares for that.

Another more realistic MRP though, WeThink with the Economist have

Labour 465
Con 76
LD 52
SNP 29
Reform 3
Green 3
PC 3

Implied vote in this MRP is

Lab 42 Con 22 Ref 14 LD 11 Green 6 SNP 3 Other 2 PC 1


https://wethink.report/news-hub/news/we-think-mrp-historical-low-for-the-conservatives/

Offline Millie

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7887 on: June 26, 2024, 06:10:54 pm »
The poll may have been commissioned by GB News but it was carried out/modelled by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus so there's no reason to doubt its integrity.

That said, the models are showing a huge amount of variance at the moment - I think the fact that such big swings are anticipated in comparison to previous elections since such models became commonplace is making it very difficult to get an accurate picture. It will certainly be a feather in the cap for which ever company gets closest to the final result!

No way Reform are getting 18 seats.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7888 on: June 26, 2024, 06:12:48 pm »
The poll may have been commissioned by GB News but it was carried out/modelled by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus so there's no reason to doubt its integrity.

That said, the models are showing a huge amount of variance at the moment - I think the fact that such big swings are anticipated in comparison to previous elections since such models became commonplace is making it very difficult to get an accurate picture. It will certainly be a feather in the cap for which ever company gets closest to the final result!

Yeah, it's up on the EC website as their latest weekly poll. Their last one put the Tories on 76 seats, so they've taken a bad tumble in the polls. Even their best case scenario is 147 seats.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
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Offline Schmarn

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7889 on: June 26, 2024, 06:16:45 pm »
Latest MIC poll

🔴  LAB 40% (-1)
🔵  CON 23% (-2)
🟣  REF UK 14% (-1)
🟠  LIB DEM 11% (+1)
🟢  GREEN 5% (-)
🟡  SNP 3% (+1)

N 3,420 | 24-26/6.

Offline Anthony

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7890 on: June 26, 2024, 06:20:16 pm »
Fair to say there's good news and bad news in this GB News poll

🗳️ GB Poll: Electoral Calculus/GB News
(MRP seat projection based on demographic extrapolation)

🌹 Labour 450 (+248)
🔸 Lib Dems 71 (+60)
🌳 Conservatives 60 (-305)
🎗️ SNP 24 (-24)
🌻 Plaid Cymru 4 (0)
🌍 Green 4 (+3)
➡️ Reform UK 18 (+18)
👤 Speaker 1

The most intriguing thing about that poll is that it has the Lib Dems as the opposition unless the Tories and Reform merge...
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Offline smicer07

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7891 on: June 26, 2024, 06:21:35 pm »
I just don't understand the mindset of people who don't vote. Apathy? I think it's more like laziness and not being arsed to do any research. This "they're all the same" tagline that people spout as well, utter bollocks. Get out and vote you twats.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7892 on: June 26, 2024, 06:21:40 pm »
The poll may have been commissioned by GB News but it was carried out/modelled by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus so there's no reason to doubt its integrity.

That said, the models are showing a huge amount of variance at the moment - I think the fact that such big swings are anticipated in comparison to previous elections since such models became commonplace is making it very difficult to get an accurate picture. It will certainly be a feather in the cap for which ever company gets closest to the final result!

I think theirs going to be a lot of tactical voting going to happen, [it would be funny if the Lib Dems end up as the biggest opposition, & Tories in 3rd place], this election is anti the Tory election as people are so utterly pissed off & angry at them, so people are going to vote whoever is the challenger to the Tory.
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Offline smicer07

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7893 on: June 26, 2024, 06:26:28 pm »
I'm dreaming of a Labour majority with LibDem opposition...

Offline Dr. Beaker

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7894 on: June 26, 2024, 06:34:09 pm »
Imagine the undignified scramble going on behind the scenes. I mean they can't all go to the House of Lords can they.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7895 on: June 26, 2024, 06:55:02 pm »
The most intriguing thing about that poll is that it has the Lib Dems as the opposition unless the Tories and Reform merge...

This has been on my mind all through the election. The Tories are short term thinkers and they lust for power. They won't be able to process such a rejection from the people - they are the natural party of government, with a God given right to rule.

If Reform offered some kind of merger, their ego and desire to return to the forefront of politics swiftly - rather than take the time to rebuild, reflect and learn some humility - would be at the top of their agenda. They are lazy and impatient and don't want to do the kind of work and soul searching that Labour has constantly had to do to win back the electorate's favour.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7896 on: June 26, 2024, 06:58:52 pm »
I’m sure that just one massive coincidence ;)

It's the tyranny of the majority rearing its ugly head again & it scares the shit out of the cowardly c*nts.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7897 on: June 26, 2024, 06:58:55 pm »
Had a very unpleasant coffee with a business connection announcing that he looks forward to Labour destroying the economy to allow a future reform/tories coalition government with frotage as pm. His business is not worth the conversation.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7898 on: June 26, 2024, 07:28:39 pm »
could be closer than you think and with tactical voting and the threat from Reform you never know



Whilst there are a lot of Deform balloons around there, (with a Balloon in Chief rousing them daily - search for 'Adam Brookes AKA Essex PR' on X for a laugh.....) the main are true blue tories. I'd say it's one they will hold, but as you say - ya never now!

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7899 on: June 26, 2024, 07:29:02 pm »
Had a very unpleasant coffee with a business connection announcing that he looks forward to Labour destroying the economy to allow a future reform/tories coalition government with frotage as pm. His business is not worth the conversation.
Sounds like a bit of a thick c*nt.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7900 on: June 26, 2024, 07:29:58 pm »

Offline Studgotelli

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7901 on: June 26, 2024, 07:38:58 pm »
  Where does the apathy come from? the biggest influence is family and friends. as you say it's not just young people who are apathetic and if they hear people close to them telling them they are all the same so no point voting then I can understand why they believe this. it's actually the older people who hold these views for life that are doing the damage. I don't mind voters being put off from voting Tory it's being put off from voting Labour believing they will do nothing for them which is wrong, don't get me wrong, young people have been let down for years and we know the reasons why governments have done this, they know young people won't turn out in force to punish them, it's a self fulfilling -prophecy.

One of the most stupid damaging statements Corbyn made as leader was to make a video 6 months before the last election saying all governments in the past 30yrs or so have ignored you, meaning the last Labour government ignored you.
It's as if he didn't even consider his job is to convince people to vote Labour and here he is saying the Labour party ignores you. Momentum went around the council estates asking young people to vote, walked up to a crowd of young people standing around and asked them if they would vote Labour, nahh we won't bother voting, no point, they won't do anything for us. that's what never seems to register, spending years attacking Labours image while fighting to take over Labour, they finally take over the party and do a complete u-turn and now it's please vote Labour, why the surprise when people say nahh you all ignore us so what's the point.

I’d be interested to hear what you think Labour are gonna change for apathetic young people? Are they gonna increase wages so more young people can buy more homes? Make housing more affordable? Make services like transport cheaper? The cost of everything only continues to go up over time, what makes you think this Labour Party are gonna change that?

Yes by all means, the majority of the votes for Labour will be that they’re not the Tories but please tell me. There’s a generation of boomers that have benefitted tremendously financially over the last 40/50 years out of luck but they want to tell young people how they should perceive things as if these aren’t structural issues caused partly by Labour (mostly the Tories last 15 years).
« Last Edit: June 26, 2024, 07:41:52 pm by Studgotelli »

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7902 on: June 26, 2024, 07:48:38 pm »
Had a very unpleasant coffee with a business connection announcing that he looks forward to Labour destroying the economy to allow a future reform/tories coalition government with frotage as pm. His business is not worth the conversation.

too late. Liz Truss got there first.
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7903 on: June 26, 2024, 07:58:53 pm »
Portillo times:

Robert Buckland (Swindon South) at 00:30
Kemi Badenoch (Essex North West) at 02:00
Nadine Dorries (Bedfordshire Mid) at 02:45
Oliver Dowden (Hertsmere) at 02:45
Alex Chalk (Cheltenham) at 03:00
Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green) at 03:00
Suella Braverman (Fareham and Waterlooville) at 03:00
Robert Jenrick (Newark) at 03:00
Gillian Keegan (Chichester) at 03:30
Victoria Atkins (Louth and Horncastle) at 03:30
Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North) at 03:30
Claire Coutinho (Surrey East) at 03:30
Andrew Mitchell (Sutton Coldfield) at 03:30
Esther McVey (Tatton) at 03:30
Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield) at 03:30
James Cleverly (Braintree) at 04:00
Michelle Donelan (Chippenham) at 04:00
Mel Stride (Devon Central) at 04:00
Mark Harper (Forest of Dean) at 04:00
Rishi Sunak (Richmond and Northallerton) at 04:00
Jake Berry (Rossendale and Darwen) at 04:00
John Glen (Salisbury) at 04:00
Laura Trott (Sevenoaks) at 04:00
Gavin Williamson (Kingswinford and South Staffordshire) at 04:15
Lee Anderson (Ashfield) at 04:30
Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East) at 04:30
Jacob Rees-Mogg (Somerset North East and Hanham) at 04:30
Victoria Prentis (Banbury) at 05:00
Michael Tomlinson (Dorset Mid and Poole North) at 05:00
Lucy Frazer (Ely and East Cambridgeshire) at 05:00
Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View) at 05:15
Jeremy C*nt (Farnham and Bordon) at 06:30
Liz Truss (Norfolk South West) time unknown
Liam Fox (Somerset North) time unknown
Tom Tugendhat (Tonbridge) time unknown

Recounts may change these times a lot!

Well worth staying up till 4.

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Offline koptommy93

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7904 on: June 26, 2024, 08:00:07 pm »
Fair to say there's good news and bad news in this GB News poll

🗳️ GB Poll: Electoral Calculus/GB News
(MRP seat projection based on demographic extrapolation)

🌹 Labour 450 (+248)
🔸 Lib Dems 71 (+60)
🌳 Conservatives 60 (-305)
🎗️ SNP 24 (-24)
🌻 Plaid Cymru 4 (0)
🌍 Green 4 (+3)
➡️ Reform UK 18 (+18)
👤 Speaker 1
Cannot see reform getting that many, that's a scary high number.
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Offline Sangria

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7905 on: June 26, 2024, 08:01:02 pm »
I’d be interested to hear what you think Labour are gonna change for apathetic young people? Are they gonna increase wages so more young people can buy more homes? Make housing more affordable? Make services like transport cheaper? The cost of everything only continues to go up over time, what makes you think this Labour Party are gonna change that?

Yes by all means, the majority of the votes for Labour will be that they’re not the Tories but please tell me. There’s a generation of boomers that have benefitted tremendously financially over the last 40/50 years out of luck but they want to tell young people how they should perceive things as if these aren’t structural issues caused partly by Labour (mostly the Tories last 15 years).

In 2016 we saw the argument prevail that there isn't any difference between mainstream Tories and mainstream Labour, and we needed radical change, any radical change, to shake the establishment up. If people are determined to not see the differences between the parties, and instead dismiss their similarities, which are dictated by the real world, then we have Brexit and the post-Brexit political world. In this brave new world, we can afford to be radical, unlimited by reality.
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Offline Circa1892

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7906 on: June 26, 2024, 08:02:33 pm »
Cannot see reform getting that many, that's a scary high number.

They’ll get 1, maybe 2.The Greens also won’t get 4.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7907 on: June 26, 2024, 08:10:09 pm »
Holidays are coming…..

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“Generosity always pays off. Generosity in your effort, in your work, in your kindness, in the way you look after people and take care of people. In the long run, if you are generous with a heart, and with humanity, it always pays off.”
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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7908 on: June 26, 2024, 08:15:57 pm »
Interesting PPB from the Lib Dems.

Thought he could have made more of a point that the Tories have fucked Social care though.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

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Offline Andy @ Allerton

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7909 on: June 26, 2024, 08:17:32 pm »
Can I just say that Sunak is a fucking weirdo

Imagine sitting next to this fucker on the train or b..


.. or... er, helicopter.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Andy @ Allerton

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7910 on: June 26, 2024, 08:20:06 pm »
Sounds like there is a protest or something in the background - can hear someone shouting or something in the background?
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline koptommy93

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7911 on: June 26, 2024, 08:20:49 pm »
Interesting PPB from the Lib Dems.

Thought he could have made more of a point that the Tories have fucked Social care though.
There is an earlier PPB from them where it's the only thing he talks about, lol.
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Offline Andy @ Allerton

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7912 on: June 26, 2024, 08:21:05 pm »
Ah fuck off Will
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7913 on: June 26, 2024, 08:21:23 pm »
He is going to investigate the fuck out of the covid years  ;D
My cup, it runneth over, I'll never get my fill

Offline Andy @ Allerton

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7914 on: June 26, 2024, 08:21:37 pm »
There is an earlier PPB from them where it's the only thing he talks about, lol.

First I've seen to be honest.

Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7915 on: June 26, 2024, 08:23:51 pm »
Yeah you stand in the gutter you fucking one fucking trick fucking pony.

"They have no plan" - straight out of the Trump shithousebook.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7916 on: June 26, 2024, 08:25:23 pm »
Taxes.. taxes.. taxes.. taxes.. taxes...


They are the fucking highest they have been in fucking 70 fucking years AND everything is fucking broken.


Fuck you and the horse you rode in on you fucking c*nt.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7917 on: June 26, 2024, 08:27:46 pm »
Sounds like a bomb went off then
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7918 on: June 26, 2024, 08:28:03 pm »
He's a c*nt, shouting over Starmer and repeating the same old lies
However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


If anyone is going to put a few fingers deep into my arse it's going to be me.

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Re: UK General Election
« Reply #7919 on: June 26, 2024, 08:29:13 pm »
He's a c*nt, shouting over Starmer and repeating the same old lies

yeah absolute fucking shithouse. He's such a fucking twat.

He's now having a go at people being ill and disabled.


c*nt.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.