Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[Sangria]

Weird that people people see what the Israelis do every day in occupied Palestine and still say, "well I'll need more proof", same with Russia, everything is being blamed on them without any of this proof, I'm by no means pro Russia, but don't you need "proof" to assign blame to any nation?, even Nordstream, I was ridiculed here for suggesting it could have been another party responsible, America and England are being accused now by the Russians, war is a very dirty business, and don't discount false flag attacks by either side, as a pretext for escalation.

Israel do this thing in Palestine, therefore they must have done this thing in Iran?

[24/7]

(Pssst.........this isn't the Israel v Palestine thread - I understand why it's coming up [drones, etc.] but let's stay more on topic - ta )

[24/7]

Remember when we were speculating if Ukraine forces are receiving training abroad? Well, they are, of course - but also at home

https://news.err.ee/1608868910/err-in-zaporizhzhia-western-instructors-on-hand-for-ukraine-mobilization

ERR in Zaporizhzhia: Western instructors on hand for Ukraine mobilization

[snippet]Western instructors also work at the training center in the Zaporizhzhia region.

One of these, "Bandera"*, whose image and voice were rendered anonymous in the report, said: "We usually try to keep the groups smaller, usually between eight to 20 people at a time," adding that this helped with more manageable supervision and instruction.

"Bandera" said he had served 15 years in the Canadian infantry, and when the current war in Ukraine began nearly a year ago, he immediately relocated there.

"Originally I thought about going the Foreign Legion route, being a fighter, but once getting here I realized the biggest impact I could have on the Ukrainian military is to train and strengthen their soldiers as a whole," "Bandera" went on.

On average, Ukrainian soldiers remain in the training camp anything from five days to up to two weeks.

---

*first name NOT "Antonio".....

[PaulF]

Sounds like he's a mercenary though, not a NATO soldier.

[24/7]

Sounds like he's a mercenary though, not a NATO soldier.

Not sure it's claimed anywhere that he is NATO........there's of course a thin line between "mercenary" and "consultant" (which is what Cloud sounds like - i.e. the latter, not the former) - either way, it's clear that western expertise based on actual know-how is being employed in the defence of Ukraine - as opposed to blackmailing and gaslighting and forcing rapists and murderers to become cannon fodder in fields.........

[didi shamone]

Weird that people people see what the Israelis do every day in occupied Palestine and still say, "well I'll need more proof", same with Russia, everything is being blamed on them without any of this proof, I'm by no means pro Russia, but don't you need "proof" to assign blame to any nation?, even Nordstream, I was ridiculed here for suggesting it could have been another party responsible, America and England are being accused now by the Russians, war is a very dirty business, and don't discount false flag attacks by either side, as a pretext for escalation.

The Russians are notorious liars for starts.. I'm not sure if anyone can ever prove conclusively who sabotaged Nordstream. But from a logical point of view what would the non fascist countries have to gain?
They didn't use it as a pretext for escalation, nor did they need to. It damaged the energy security of their allies also.
People use all manner of snide tactics in conflicts, but doing something entirely dumb with no discernable benefit is rarely one.

[Sangria]

The Russians are notorious liars for starts.. I'm not sure if anyone can ever prove conclusively who sabotaged Nordstream. But from a logical point of view what would the non fascist countries have to gain?
They didn't use it as a pretext for escalation, nor did they need to. It damaged the energy security of their allies also.
People use all manner of snide tactics in conflicts, but doing something entirely dumb with no discernable benefit is rarely one.

I start from the position that anything Russia says is a lie, and work from there. And from that, when people say that Russia is telling the truth and that the west is lying, that that is an ineffable truth without presenting some very concretely sourced arguments, it tells me much about them. For instance, in February and March last year, when some people were blaming NATO for provoking Russia into invading Ukraine, that completely discredited them in my eyes on everything. That told me that they weren't interested in sourcing arguments, but were the reflexive anti-west left wingers Orwell wrote about.

[24/7]

I start from the position that anything Russia says is a lie, and work from there. And from that, when people say that Russia is telling the truth and that the west is lying, that that is an ineffable truth without presenting some very concretely sourced arguments, it tells me much about them. For instance, in February and March last year, when some people were blaming NATO for provoking Russia into invading Ukraine, that completely discredited them in my eyes on everything. That told me that they weren't interested in sourcing arguments, but were the reflexive anti-west left wingers Orwell wrote about.

.......like Roger Waters. Amongst others.

[PaulF]

Not sure it's claimed anywhere that he is NATO........there's of course a thin line between "mercenary" and "consultant" (which is what Cloud sounds like - i.e. the latter, not the former) - either way, it's clear that western expertise based on actual know-how is being employed in the defence of Ukraine - as opposed to blackmailing and gaslighting and forcing rapists and murderers to become cannon fodder in fields.........

Fair point. I thought we got here via one of the red lines for NATO being none of their troops in Ukraine.
Agree to with your thin line comment. I want trying to imply the lack of morals associated with a mercenary, more that his being there was not a representative of NATO.

[24/7]

It's going to be an absolute massacre on both sides if this goes ahead......

Half a million orcs on Feb 24th? 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64492938

[Mister Flip Flop]

It's going to be an absolute massacre on both sides if this goes ahead......

Half a million orcs on Feb 24th? 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64492938

Unfortunately Putin doesn't have a reverse gear. Europe needs to wake up because Russia is now running a war time economy and they have their factories running 24/7 producing equipment for this war meanwhile Europe is arguing over a few fucking tanks. Also this mindset of "they'll run out of men any day now" is ridiculous and we need to stop fooling ourselves.

Never again in Europe they said give me a fucking break...

[Zlen]

We’re taking Ukraine for granted.

[baltic out here]

Unfortunately Putin doesn't have a reverse gear. Europe needs to wake up because Russia is now running a war time economy and they have their factories running 24/7 producing equipment for this war meanwhile Europe is arguing over a few fucking tanks. Also this mindset of "they'll run out of men any day now" is ridiculous and we need to stop fooling ourselves.

Never again in Europe they said give me a fucking break...

this

We’re taking Ukraine for granted.

and this

[Lusty]

Unfortunately Putin doesn't have a reverse gear. Europe needs to wake up because Russia is now running a war time economy and they have their factories running 24/7 producing equipment for this war meanwhile Europe is arguing over a few fucking tanks. Also this mindset of "they'll run out of men any day now" is ridiculous and we need to stop fooling ourselves.

Never again in Europe they said give me a fucking break...

What exactly do you want Europe to do?

[Mister Flip Flop]

What exactly do you want Europe to do?

Stop procrastinating and standing on the sidelines whilst Russia does to Ukraine what Germany did to others in WW2. We don't need boots on the ground but we are nearly a year into this war and the Ukrainian president in still pleading with the west for weapons whilst those same weapons sit in warehouses across Europe. What are we waiting for? Why has it taken a year for Ukraine to get a few tanks for fuck sake? I'm also getting the sense from talking to people that we've become numb to what Russia is doing to the Ukrainian population and a sort of shrug of the shoulders attitude has crept in.

Never again we said, it's either a catchphrase or it's not.

[Zlen]

Exactly. We are too slow to accept the gravity of the situation and have allowed Russia to get it's bearings, reorganise and consolidate. Just pour weapons in there, everything they want and help them with repairs and logistics. There is no time to waste, use these few months to arm them to the teeth and strike with warmer weather.

[[new username under construction]]

Would it not have something to do with Russia getting hold of advanced western weapons? or Russia just saying, you're escalating things too much, we'll nuke em?

edit actually maybe something about German tanks, seeing as they are "fighting Nazi's" just playing into Russian hands?

[Lusty]

Would it not have something to do with Russia getting hold of advanced western weapons? or Russia just saying, you're escalating things too much, we'll nuke em?

edit actually maybe something about German tanks, seeing as they are "fighting Nazi's" just playing into Russian hands?

It's been a deliberate drip feed of equipment from defensive to offensive over the last year to avoid escalation. A year ago the idea of the West sending tanks, fighter jets etc to Ukraine would have been unthinkable.

It's also not as simple as rolling a tank straight out of a depot in Poland all the way to the front line thousands of miles away and letting them just crack on. They need training, maintenance, logistics etc.  These things take time and organisation.

The West are absolutely guilty of not doing enough since 2014, but I don't think they could have done much more since Feb 2022.

[Red Beret]

At this point maybe Putin just wants to drag other countries into this mess so he CAN justify some form of escalation.

[Gerry Attrick]

Stop procrastinating and standing on the sidelines whilst Russia does to Ukraine what Germany did to others in WW2. We don't need boots on the ground but we are nearly a year into this war and the Ukrainian president in still pleading with the west for weapons whilst those same weapons sit in warehouses across Europe. What are we waiting for? Why has it taken a year for Ukraine to get a few tanks for fuck sake? I'm also getting the sense from talking to people that we've become numb to what Russia is doing to the Ukrainian population and a sort of shrug of the shoulders attitude has crept in.

Never again we said, it's either a catchphrase or it's not.

These countries still have to be able to defend themselves if it came down to it. It’s not that a lot of countries are sitting on surplus high tech military equipment for the fun of it. Things like tanks and fighter planes are fucking pricey and aren’t just knocked out by the dozen a day. Especially Britain where the MOD is chronically undermanned and underfunded by the Tories. We throw everything at Ukraine and then they start invading a NATO country. What do we use to defend them? What if China gets a bit rowdy with Taiwan, what should America offer them at that point? It’s not nearly as simple as you seem to believe.

[Red Beret]

What's needed IS a war economy. War material production needs to be ramped up in Allied countries in order to directly supply Ukraine, rather than giving them existing materials that might weaken the defences of other nations on Russia's doorstep.

Problem is, it's not the 1940s, where you can knock out a few hundred tanks a day. Everything is run by computers; they need to be built, tested, installed, tested again, etc. We've never had a war economy for microchips and military computer hardware before, have we?

It's got to be dirt quick and simple equipment that is relatively cheap to build, can be mass produced, and can damage/destroy hardware that cost huge sums of money to build. Where Russia might send a million men running screaming over the battlefield to overwhelm defences, they need to be met by a million drones carrying frag grenades, being piloted by a thousand people.

[Sangria]

These countries still have to be able to defend themselves if it came down to it. It’s not that a lot of countries are sitting on surplus high tech military equipment for the fun of it. Things like tanks and fighter planes are fucking pricey and aren’t just knocked out by the dozen a day. Especially Britain where the MOD is chronically undermanned and underfunded by the Tories. We throw everything at Ukraine and then they start invading a NATO country. What do we use to defend them? What if China gets a bit rowdy with Taiwan, what should America offer them at that point? It’s not nearly as simple as you seem to believe.

Not really a relevant argument. The countries who are closest to Russia are the ones most willing to hand their equipment over to Ukraine. It's countries who enjoy that buffer who are procrastinating. Especially since Germany are one of the most prolific weapons manufacturers in the world. They're really eager to sell weapons to other countries. They just don't want them to be used.

[Sangria]

What's needed IS a war economy. War material production needs to be ramped up in Allied countries in order to directly supply Ukraine, rather than giving them existing materials that might weaken the defences of other nations on Russia's doorstep.

Problem is, it's not the 1940s, where you can knock out a few hundred tanks a day. Everything is run by computers; they need to be built, tested, installed, tested again, etc. We've never had a war economy for microchips and military computer hardware before, have we?

It's got to be dirt quick and simple equipment that is relatively cheap to build, can be mass produced, and can damage/destroy hardware that cost huge sums of money to build. Where Russia might send a million men running screaming over the battlefield to overwhelm defences, they need to be met by a million drones carrying frag grenades, being piloted by a thousand people.

Unfortunately, that kind of warfare runs into the bottleneck of electronics, which is produced by very few countries. Fortunately, pretty much all these countries are denying them to Russia. So while we have to deal with a bottleneck, all Russia has is the droplets from the condensation on the outside of the bottle.

Also, if anyone trots out the argument that sanctions aren't working and thus we need to end them, and evidence this by pointing to their civilian economy, that tells you much about the person making that argument. While Russia can switch production within the civilian economy and mitigate against sanctions to some extent, there is no mitigating against the starving in the supply of basic materials for the modern war economy. It may take time to see the effects of sanctions on the Russian civilian economy. We've been seeing the effects of sanctions on the Russian war economy for months.

[Gerry Attrick]

Not really a relevant argument. The countries who are closest to Russia are the ones most willing to hand their equipment over to Ukraine. It's countries who enjoy that buffer who are procrastinating. Especially since Germany are one of the most prolific weapons manufacturers in the world. They're really eager to sell weapons to other countries. They just don't want them to be used.

They’re also the countries that would need the most help if they were invaded. What Estonia, Lithuania and even Poland have is nowhere near adequate.

[Red Beret]

Unfortunately, that kind of warfare runs into the bottleneck of electronics, which is produced by very few countries. Fortunately, pretty much all these countries are denying them to Russia. So while we have to deal with a bottleneck, all Russia has is the droplets from the condensation on the outside of the bottle.

Also, if anyone trots out the argument that sanctions aren't working and thus we need to end them, and evidence this by pointing to their civilian economy, that tells you much about the person making that argument. While Russia can switch production within the civilian economy and mitigate against sanctions to some extent, there is no mitigating against the starving in the supply of basic materials for the modern war economy. It may take time to see the effects of sanctions on the Russian civilian economy. We've been seeing the effects of sanctions on the Russian war economy for months.

Yeah, some good points in there. Sanctions need to hit civilians too, as unfortunately affecting standard of living is what will ultimately drive protests against the Putin regime and the war.

One thing that will have the military analysts pouring over this conflict is how it signifies a change in warfare. If you have tanks costing $2.5m a pop getting knocked out by drones that cost $250k each, then it's clear your weaponry has hit an evolutionary cul-de-sac. Firepower has, perhaps, become too complex, too overly reliant on technology. If you don't want to risk your expensive equipment then you can't fight a war.

This isn't random terrorist or insurgents with IEDs - they can hurt a military and become enough of an irritant to affect military planning. What we're seeing is a nation state going all in on mass-produced, relatively inexpensive and low tech equipment that uses off the shelf parts to stall a vastly superior opposing force. 

Of course the rank corruption within the Russian military has shown it is barely fit for purpose. And yes, this is likely a shift in doctrine that is still in its infancy. Against a better equipped, funded, trained and disciplined force, the effects would be greatly minimalised. But analysts and historians will be taking note.

[Henry Gale]

What exactly do you want Europe to do?

The same as what I want the USA to do, Nothing!! except negotiate a peace.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

At this point maybe Putin just wants to drag other countries into this mess so he CAN justify some form of escalation.

So he can justify losing.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

It's got to be dirt quick and simple equipment that is relatively cheap to build, can be mass produced, and can damage/destroy hardware that cost huge sums of money to build. Where Russia might send a million men running screaming over the battlefield to overwhelm defences, they need to be met by a million drones carrying frag grenades, being piloted by a thousand people.

They should get the guy who does NYE in London.

[Red Beret]

The same as what I want the USA to do, Nothing!! except negotiate a peace.

You can't negotiate with a dictator. They see diplomacy from the other side as a sign of weakness and will seek only to extract concessions. And then they will be back again, two or three years down the line.

Putin will not accept any peace that leaves Russia with less than what it currently has, that's why we have a war and that's why the war will continue.

[Jiminy Cricket]

The same as what I want the USA to do, Nothing!! except negotiate a peace.

You are Jeremy and I claim my five pounds!

[Stockholm Syndrome]

So what's the current situation then with the upcoming offensive. Is the western technology and training going to be effective or have Russia strengthened sufficiently in production and tactics for this assault to break through the Ukrainian line?

[Lusty]

The same as what I want the USA to do, Nothing!! except negotiate a peace.

What terms are you offering Putin?

[Henry Gale]

You are Jeremy and I claim my five pounds!

No I'm the one trying to avoid a nuclear war 

[Zlen]

No I'm the one trying to avoid a nuclear war 

Not to downplay the danger, but if Ukraine and the West started crossing the border and entering Russia - I would be against it. But 'avoiding the nuclear war' by being afraid to pummel the fuck out of these fascist pigs inside Ukraine with anything we can, well it's exactly what Putin is hoping for. It's either Ukraine or it isn't. If it is, and we are their allies, give them anything they need to beat the living shit out of armies of Mordor.

[DilanGlass]

If the US wants Ukraine to truly be able to maneuver and counter threats over the open fields, the US should pledge 700 or more tanks out of their reserves. They will still have more tanks or about the same number of tanks as all of the EU. Also, it takes time to prep them, send them, train the soldiers, setup logistics, and more. So by the time we see if the tanks are useful or not, we should start by preparing to send tons more of them now. Ukraine has destroyed about 3,000 tanks; The last package promised the Ukrainians was 300 some tanks... They will need more, the Europeans don't have enough to spare and are the next in line should Russia keep rolling, so whether we like it or not (and who knows what the deal should ultimately look like), but the US is one of very few countries with tanks to spare. Meanwhile we all can help through the projects like this

[Jiminy Cricket]

No I'm the one trying to avoid a nuclear war 

But that's what Jeremy says too. Again, I claim my five pounds!

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corbyn-interview-russia-cease-fire/31838717.html

[...]

RFE/RL: You urged us to look at history. But in the history of Russia: it never deterred Russia from action if its neighbor was less well-armed than before. So what does this mean for your argument that if we wind down military alliances, Russia would be more inclined not to attack?

Corbyn: We could all build up more and more military stuff. It's almost unlimited the amount of military hardware either side can build up -- the war will then get worse. There are nuclear weapons available to Russia; there are nuclear weapons available to NATO. I never want us to descend into anything even threatening nuclear war happening. That means there has to be real pressure on Russia for a cease-fire, real pressure for some kind of longer-term [solution].

RFE/RL: How do you see that pressure happening? Russia doesn't want to return to diplomacy.

Corbyn: No, of course they don't. It comes as a combination of political pressure and what's happening on the ground. But in the meantime, we have [5.5] million people who are refugees, [and] many other refugees from other conflicts around the world. Is this a time when we're just going to plan one more war after another, or are we in a position to actually use the language of peace and try and bring about a cease-fire?

RFE/RL: On NATO expansion, we have covered Sweden and Finland. But Ukraine and Georgia have also been longtime aspirants to join NATO. Do you see them ever joining? Would you welcome them being part of NATO, considering what has happened?

Corbyn: From everything I'm hearing, it seems very unlikely that NATO would take either country into membership. That's everything I'm hearing. Because of the obvious dangers of an escalation with Russia. Although I do obviously support the decisions that have been made [inaudible] in the case of Georgia, for example, as with Ukraine, what I don't understand is why Russia, having accepted through the Minsk agreement the independence of Ukraine and indeed [being] prepared to discuss a degree of autonomy within Ukraine for parts of the Donbas -- that surely should have been the way forward, and Russia has chosen to go down the route of invasion and war. And that...just starts another war.

RFE/RL: You are famously a proponent of nuclear disarmament. Has this war in Ukraine changed the way you look at it at all, in that it might be good to have a nuclear deterrent when you are dealing with Russia?

Corbyn: A nuclear war will kill us all, you and me included.

RFE/RL: The key word here is deterrence -- that nobody resorts to war.

Corbyn: A nuclear war will kill us all, you and me included. That is what nuclear wars do. I support the global ban treaty (also known as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, or TPNW), which was voted on by the majority of the [UN] Security Council. I support the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). And we have been through a process, up until about three years ago, where there was a general reduction in the numbers of nuclear warheads around the world by the U.S.A., France, Britain, Russia, China -- India and Pakistan have small numbers but nevertheless do possess them, [and] likewise, Israel and North Korea. Any talk that moves towards nuclear war just ends the planet.

[...]

[Lusty]

No I'm the one trying to avoid a nuclear war 

Apeasement is a famously poor strategy if you're trying to avoid escalation.

[24/7]

No I'm the one trying to avoid a nuclear war 

The bully has raised that spectre again at Volgograd, on the 80th anniversary of the last time Russians faced German tanks. By making repeated propaganda-style references like these, thus continuing to demonise the EU by labelling them as fascists, and by giving further thinly veiled threats of nuclear weapons being used, he's stoking the very fires of fear and division that could allow him to carve up Europe.

Ironically, both his rhetoric and his generals' battle plans are carbon copies of................WW2................so, straight out of the fascist playbook.

Bullies only reply to strength - and the threat of nuclear war is just that. A threat. Give in to that fear and we may as well all just bend over and start learning russky.

https://news.err.ee/1608868031/expert-russia-s-threats-of-nuclear-war-no-longer-work

[Qston]

The bully has raised that spectre again at Volgograd, on the 80th anniversary of the last time Russians faced German tanks. By making repeated propaganda-style references like these, thus continuing to demonise the EU by labelling them as fascists, and by giving further thinly veiled threats of nuclear weapons being used, he's stoking the very fires of fear and division that could allow him to carve up Europe.

Ironically, both his rhetoric and his generals' battle plans are carbon copies of................WW2................so, straight out of the fascist playbook.

Bullies only reply to strength - and the threat of nuclear war is just that. A threat. Give in to that fear and we may as well all just bend over and start learning russky.

https://news.err.ee/1608868031/expert-russia-s-threats-of-nuclear-war-no-longer-work

Well said. History shows us that when dealing with dictators appeasement doesn`t work. He should have been stopped in his tracks when he invaded Crimea, or even before that in Georgia. He wasn`t and the message he took from that is that they are not going to stop me as they are weak.

Ukraine needs to be supplied with whatever it needs to push them back to their border. I understand the dangers of that, and I understand why Germany in particular was reluctant to supply tanks, but the West has been too slow to take this lunatic on.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Well said. History shows us that when dealing with dictators appeasement doesn`t work. He should have been stopped in his tracks when he invaded Crimea, or even before that in Georgia. He wasn`t and the message he took from that is that they are not going to stop me as they are weak.

Ukraine needs to be supplied with whatever it needs to push them back to their border. I understand the dangers of that, and I understand why Germany in particular was reluctant to supply tanks, but the West has been too slow to take this lunatic on.

We all know who was calling the shots, but it was actually Medvedev who was the President that officially sanctioned the invasion of Georgia.